California’s first coronavirus lockdown order, in the spring, resulted in benefits within a month. In April, Govin Governor Gavin Newsom called for the state to “openly discuss” the spread of the disease.
It has been two weeks since a two-sided home came out of the home, and no flats have been found in much of California. This may be because the taboos are more expensive than those in the spring, and because the people of California are so tired of the public health orders – or against them – they are joining forces. with people outside their homes.
But experts say the most obvious explanation is for the prevalence of coronavirus in the community. The latest order came after the illness flew out of control, in part due to the Thanksgiving trip – a difference that experts say is more difficult to hit this time around.
“The disease is unforgivable and unpredictable, and there is only so much socialization,” said Dr. Tomás Aragón, who will take over next month as director of the Department of Health. California.
When the number of daily cases rises to more than 20 per 100,000 people, “it becomes very difficult to control diseases,” said Aragón, who helped lead the San Francisco epidemic as a county health official.
California’s case numbers are rising every day ahead of that number. The weekly Los Angeles County County Census rate is 153.6 per 100,000 residents, Aragón said. The state had 82.2 inhabitants per 100,000 inhabitants, compared with an average of 64.6.
“When prices are very high,” says Aragón, “it’s not like you’re training well with levers.”
The new residency requirement at home is changing. GPS data from mobile phones shows the movement of people in California, Newsom said. Higher mobility rates are associated with higher scores in all areas of the epidemic.
Health professionals interviewed by The Times said the situation was even more dangerous without a new home order. But their predictions of when the waters will stabilize the issues – if only briefly – are different, from the week to the end of the big days.
At the moment, most hospitals are filling more hospitals, and doctors are more selective about what patients agree to.
Crush is believed to be better than good. According to experts, the lack of space and lack of staff leads to further deaths, not only for COVID-19 patients but for people with other diseases who need to be cured But could not enter. The state has ordered thousands of body bags and cold storage units to care for the dead.
Comparing this burden to the state’s commitment to spring, when California garnered praise around the country for spreading the summit by the end of March, closing all schools and unsuitable stores. But the number of patients at the time, while awake, was only a fraction of the state’s face today.
“There is no reason for a good lockdown system if you have cases like the one we are having,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, an epidemiologist at UC Berkeley.
Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, a UCLA medical epidemiologist, described the spread of the disease at the onset of the epidemic as “throwing toys into the woods, and the consequences. the end. ”
March’s close was three weeks, he said. Right now, there’s a “full-blown, angry, fiery fire,” and “just a long time” to take it under control.
The game lit up the Thanksgiving fire. People who traveled or gathered with people outside their families became ill and were then spread to others. In addition, the cold weather hosts the environment for coronavirus, which grows at a low rate and is easily spread throughout the home.
Some experts have suggested that as a result of Thanksgiving Day, Christmas may be flat, or new issues may arise. But summaries for Christmas and New Year bring a new wave of illnesses.
“I do not think we will see a significant drop in cases until sometime in the third week of January,” Swartzberg said.
For health orders to work, people must follow them, and some places are clean.
Inside the Promenade Temecula store last week, the business quickly became apparent. Customer Josie Cardenas, 23, a native of Perris, said she did not expect the mall to be overcrowded and hoped people would take care of health orders.
“This is not the same as previous orders,” said the emergency medical staff. “Everything is open, and people are going.”
Fatima Tomlinson, 21, who went to the store to buy hoodies that were not available online, said the order to stay at home was stronger.
“People around us are having a party, they don’t keep the rules, and now they have a reason to go out in public for the big days,” said Perris.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco called the stay-at-home home order “very stupid.” He said in a video this month that he would not be performing his job.
Riverside County, which includes Temecula and Perris, was one of California’s highest cases and death toll of 58 counties last week – far better than L.A. County.
In Northern California, on the Broadway Plaza on Walnut Creek, an open-air shopping mall that is still open before Christmas, eye-popping shoppers have been roaming the streets in greater numbers than in years ago. hala.
Lines about half a dozen covered with outer Lululemon. Santa Claus from the outside. A masked elf says Santa has a mask under his white, but children can leave masks when they are photographed.
In the state of Los Angeles, unions have called for teachers, nurses, and hotel staff for more complex health orders, such as ending in January. They asked the Los Angeles County Board of Trustees to work harder and initiated an online application.
“We understand,” said Los Angeles Coalition President Cecily Myart-Cruz. “We don’t have a real lock.”
Despite the anger, none of the health professionals interviewed by The Times said the state had imposed a home stay order similar to what happened at the spring, when things were banned. non-profit sales from sales.
At this point, Swartzberg said, “I think he has acted smarter and smarter.”
Kim-Farley of UCLA said there were crowds in department stores during the spring closure due to the influx of customers and the possibility of opening. Nowadays, customers are widely distributed among many stores, limited by the number of customers they can enter.
Aragón says there is no easy answer.
“You need an economic system for the community to have good health,” he said. He believes there is a lot of importation from families. A patient, he said, is more likely to spread the disease to 30% of others at home.
“A few weeks ago,” Aragón said, “I promised you we could take care of this.” Now that the ICUs are full, he is no longer trusted.
Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County public health official, announced the state of emergency. After the spokesperson said there were more than 8,000 deaths in LA County, he had to stop and mourn. “I’m sorry,” he said.
Since then, 800 LA residents have been killed in COVID-19.
San Francisco’s public health physician, Dr. Grant Colfax, sought to persuade citizens to think about their parents, grandparents or children being denied hospital beds or proper care due to major hospitals.
“Do you like that?” he asked last week.
But they are mirrors of hope.
Colfax said new virus infections in San Francisco had slowed down over the past week. If people listen to the painful lessons learned from Thanksgiving Day, the number of new cases will probably decrease, he said.
Ferrer said “if all goes well,” he hopes to see a stabilization or a reduction in the number of daily cases by Christmas.
“I’ve talked to a lot of people who say, you know, for the first time, they’re taking things seriously, they’re very worried about what’s going on in our hospitals, and they’re working. they made some big changes, “he said.
Some neighborhoods have worked at home because they have given a message to the public about the escalation of the crisis, said Dr. Robert Wachter, a professor and official of the Department. Business at UC San Francisco.
“It can’t be guaranteed that the new orders are doing anything,” Wachter said, “but I think without them, we’d be better off.”
Co-author Howard Blume contributed to this report.